MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e65b4777f6cae599c4358e8a747bb30229a24c81b0137f066b616bdaad3b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,007 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 3,679$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.11 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 2,037$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.85 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 1,164$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.45 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 705.54$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.67 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 700.72$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.25 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 409$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 239.4$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 236$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 158.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 157.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 134$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…8b73backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 80.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 59.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 53.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked San Francisco Giants | 75c | 38.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 32.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 19.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.