Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Sacramento State Hornets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43028deca8af87278a8a43dba0df701e1558e1512ba80ab6e31cc513101e28a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sacramento State Hornetsof Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, Sacramento State Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 53c | 3,187$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.83 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 42c | 1,738$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.05 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 58c | 1,619$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.07 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.94 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 53c | 1,605$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.74 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 58c | 1,172$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.2 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 40c | 1,082$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.64 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…eeefbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 70c | 1,001$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.47 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 58c | 855$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.64 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 41c | 671.77$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.84 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 40c | 624$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Sacramento State Hornets | 51c | 464.75$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.61 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 57c | 360.21$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 53c | 320.75$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 24c | 242$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 44c | 226.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 42c | 200.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 48c | 192.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…6678backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 57c | 149.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Sacramento State Hornets | 55c | 145$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 45c | 139.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Sacramento State Hornets | 52c | 132.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 77c | 130.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 42c | 125$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Sacramento State Hornets | 35c | 124.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Sacramento State Hornets | 51c | 114.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 40c | 102.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 225 | 52.9%119 W · 106 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 22c | 94.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 47c | 94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 56c | 80.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 175 | 46.3%81 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sacramento State Hornets | 45c | 67.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 43c | 66.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Sacramento State Hornets | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sacramento State Hornets | 58c | 56.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…4cd8backed Sacramento State Hornets | 47c | 54.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…530dbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…8249backed Sacramento State Hornets | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Sacramento State Hornets | 28c | 48.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Sacramento State Hornets | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…e43ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Sacramento State Hornets | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 63c | 33.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sacramento State Hornets | 36c | 32.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Sacramento State Hornets | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 37c | 30.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…d044backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Sacramento State Hornets | 62c | 19.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Sacramento State Hornets | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Sacramento State Hornetsthis page
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 154.5Under won
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 155.5Under won
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 156.5Under won
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Sacramento State Hornets (-2.5)Sacramento State Hornets won
- Spread: Sacramento State Hornets (-3.5)Sacramento State Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.