Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x431ed5e0a57d54d6e85d78d31818c847d1489eb491c9aa90846809a7d9dcd6ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 57c | 999.99$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.92 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 38c | 509.26$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 403.37$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 36c | 331.96$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 283.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 63c | 264.88$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 242.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 227.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 210$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 66c | 197.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 185.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 168.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 78c | 159.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 34c | 153.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 39c | 152$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 142.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 57c | 132.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 131.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 111.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 104.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 42c | 103$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 66c | 98.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 43c | 88.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 85.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 80.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 41c | 70.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 77c | 67.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 46c | 65.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 59c | 62.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 61.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 53.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 41c | 52.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 52.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 59c | 50.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 28c | 50.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 52c | 49.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 65c | 37.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 58c | 37.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 52c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 59c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 50c | 25.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 59c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf122…d07cbacked Yes | 59c | 25.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 52c | 25.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 59c | 22.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 57c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.