Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x435c5ddfa67acc15c826f5886ecffc5e2751bb8282ebcdee953aa4db12afba24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 79c | 423.36$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 74c | 381.89$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.87 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 31c | 227.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 225.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 225.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 27c | 198.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.78 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 25c | 161.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 124.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…0f5ebacked Yes | 31c | 116.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 102.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 99.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 47c | 95.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 95.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 25c | 85.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 68c | 84.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 60c | 83.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 28c | 82.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 24c | 81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 80.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 68c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 73.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 72.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 22c | 71.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 30c | 66.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 39c | 63.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 60.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 59.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 24c | 55.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 53.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 53.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 30c | 51.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 70c | 46.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 43.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 76c | 42.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…76d7backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 72c | 38.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 31c | 36.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 28c | 35.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…6bc4backed Yes | 33c | 35.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 72c | 29.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 68c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 28.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 76c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 71c | 25.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 25.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 49c | 24.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed No | 72c | 18.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.