NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a908a7d14f670535f60ade6623228571d746351f5d0755384d0ec229d81831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6198…945abacked Over | 80c | 3,800$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1981…7f58backed Over | 79c | 1,200$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…961abacked Over | 80c | 1,100$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 25c | 853.61$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.61 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 80c | 771.61$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.29 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 20c | 676$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.83 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked Over | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 18c | 487$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.74 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 16c | 481$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.36 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 59c | 297.4$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 14c | 222.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.35 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 17c | 180$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 145$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe725…2b00backed Under | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 115$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5c…2775backed Under | 20c | 65.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 25c | 57.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 18c | 55.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 69c | 27.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 67c | 26.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 70c | 14.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. HurricanesCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.