La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ad43820b9ae2bb3c05f638622e7efd098fc8bf2bd462da1424a1d49aa6502b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 12c | 35,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed No | 9c | 23,375$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.54 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 10c | 22,444$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.44 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 11c | 18,621$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.11 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 8c | 9,570$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.43 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 10c | 7,330$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.4 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 10c | 5,818$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.82 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 11c | 4,834$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.16 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 9c | 4,288$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.91 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 9c | 2,719$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.69 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed No | 5c | 1,651$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 560$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 10c | 335$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 13c | 326.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed No | 11c | 321.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 9c | 280.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 10c | 266.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 10c | 216.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 11c | 199.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 9c | 181.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed No | 12c | 169.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588a…aeebbacked No | 12c | 104.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-17?this page
- Will CF Talavera vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?No won
- Will CF Talavera win on 2025-12-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.