MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43c87ff60fe1bfd8c6518c388008d819d2cc78320dabaa1b56f60b269d9fc04a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 6,710$2,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,752.19 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 5,959$3,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,303.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 5,866$3,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 1,012$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.69 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…db73backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 955.89$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.24 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 886.87$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.83 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 845.76$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 837.51$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 780.88$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 480.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.33 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 365.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 303.49$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 273.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 200.53$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 151.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 137.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 136$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 134.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 121.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 118.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 114.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 112.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 110.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 96.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 95.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 82.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 72.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 52.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 51.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 50.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 49.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 41.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 32.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…789ebacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 26.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 26.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 25.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.