MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86e11c792c67536b66b3efbfdaaebfba2559b507f3a0172042ce7b857ed9515d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 54c | 20,515$11,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,360.99 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 8,303$3,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,717.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 7,373$3,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,489.2 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 2,039$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 999.92$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.96 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 967.69$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.8 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 42c | 965.2$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.38 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 830.56$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.5 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 80c | 821.78$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 20c | 690.2$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.04 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 59c | 573.55$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.06 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…4342backed Under | 62c | 551.65$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.02 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 474.14$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 55c | 237.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 232.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 52c | 208.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 49c | 198.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 52c | 176.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 153.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 55c | 141.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 32c | 135.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…e60abacked Over | 80c | 103.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 33c | 100.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 58c | 100.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 89.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 49c | 79.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Over | 51c | 71.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 58c | 67.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 49c | 50.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…bf84backed Over | 44c | 45.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 23c | 45.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 46c | 41.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 50c | 38.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 62c | 37.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 58c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 34.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Under | 53c | 30.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 43c | 29.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Under | 62c | 25.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 49c | 24.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b00…795fbacked Under | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.