NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Kings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43e1df49802c9b86a25c886ffee36646141ac3861d98fa99f7a1240d40a748d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Stars, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8560…71b0backed Kings | 49c | 4,545$2,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,317.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ec…f8b2backed Stars | 51c | 2,942$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kings | 19c | 2,304$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.22 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Kings | 32c | 2,090$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca01…c62fbacked Stars | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…69a4backed Kings | 57c | 1,407$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…42f9backed Stars | 59c | 1,204$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Stars | 50c | 1,076$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.99 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kings | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Stars | 77c | 638.48$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.22 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Stars | 77c | 538.6$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90d…7db5backed Stars | 80c | 295.71$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Kings | 43c | 276.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.14 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Stars | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 45c | 191.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…db19backed Kings | 78c | 155.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Stars | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Kings | 63c | 145$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 212 | 55.7%118 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Stars | 12c | 102.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…39c9backed Stars | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed Kings | 50c | 96.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…d0d5backed Stars | 65c | 68.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Stars | 46c | 62.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…cfb9backed Stars | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…bc4ebacked Stars | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Stars | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 42.1%120 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…aea3backed Kings | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb9…33cbbacked Kings | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Stars | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48e…8f7dbacked Kings | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…2261backed Stars | 59c | 29.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed Kings | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…bf06backed Stars | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2636…0236backed Stars | 80c | 17.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.