CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ea7474296cd8319ca59d6c36b9c331ee87c6a7f9bbc6e074de6e9854ec4340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof TheMongolz, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x427c…9517backed TheMongolz | 0c | 10,910$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed TheMongolz | 52c | 7,166$3,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,761.21 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed paiN | 50c | 6,921$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,455.21 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked paiN | 51c | 3,389$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.97 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed paiN | 41c | 2,467$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.61 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked paiN | 53c | 2,220$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.84 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…126cbacked TheMongolz | 58c | 1,923$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…4591backed TheMongolz | 72c | 1,810$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed paiN | 53c | 928.62$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.64 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked paiN | 51c | 872.08$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.08 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked paiN | 40c | 560.12$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.12 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked TheMongolz | 67c | 451.44$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed paiN | 69c | 260.61$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed paiN | 45c | 247.61$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed TheMongolz | 11c | 235$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked paiN | 59c | 131.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed TheMongolz | 56c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed paiN | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked TheMongolz | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked paiN | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3)TheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 2 WinnerTheMongolz won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.