Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Trier Men: Adrian Oetzbach vs Thiago Cigarran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43f0e2fee0c4726387c554f26dc4e38106d1a51252a2be1d7b07982ad04b2304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adrian Oetzbachof Adrian Oetzbach, Thiago Cigarran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c50…e0c9backed Thiago Cigarran | 26c | 2,389$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.59 | 421 | 31.6%133 W · 288 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Adrian Oetzbach | 75c | 1,738$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.35 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Adrian Oetzbach | 77c | 602.12$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Adrian Oetzbach | 75c | 543.6$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.48 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Thiago Cigarran | 24c | 539.02$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Thiago Cigarran | 30c | 399.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Thiago Cigarran | 24c | 183.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…573bbacked Thiago Cigarran | 20c | 136$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Adrian Oetzbach | 70c | 132.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 24c | 108.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Thiago Cigarran | 24c | 106.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Adrian Oetzbach | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 282 | 55%155 W · 127 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Thiago Cigarran | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Adrian Oetzbach | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Adrian Oetzbach | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Adrian Oetzbach | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Adrian Oetzbach | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 76c | 61.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Adrian Oetzbach | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Adrian Oetzbach | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Adrian Oetzbach | 79c | 43.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Adrian Oetzbach | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 26c | 42.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Adrian Oetzbach | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…d26ebacked Adrian Oetzbach | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…969abacked Adrian Oetzbach | 75c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Adrian Oetzbach | 73c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b6…9b2cbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.