Premier League · resolved market
Will Villa win on 2024-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4404e4357bb1f3a566672f0d9c2185e9b64f8b2870235a35bdfebf4c1bbd5b05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 2,122$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.28 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 16c | 2,063$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…83bebacked Yes | 14c | 1,399$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 10c | 920.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 7c | 707.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…24abbacked Yes | 15c | 669.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 654.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…2d70backed Yes | 16c | 644.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7c…3228backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 13c | 501.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +10.6wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…10aebacked Yes | 13c | 387.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…2835backed Yes | 13c | 279.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 12c | 209.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…3ae2backed Yes | 15c | 163.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed Yes | 11c | 162.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 15c | 128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 79c | 116.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…6bb2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…db3abacked Yes | 15c | 85.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…ccc8backed Yes | 17c | 71.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villa win on 2024-11-09?this page
- Will Liverpool vs. Villa end in a draw?No won
- Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.