Premier League · resolved market
Will Liverpool vs. Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b1baec1787f889e74b058aaba2db12e7f4b7d530bf6eae8bf8f7121fa3e16a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 79c | 2,390$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.9 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 11c | 2,279$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 80c | 1,949$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.24 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 21c | 1,190$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 21c | 1,072$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…45efbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 79c | 767.21$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.77 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 17c | 728.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 19c | 530$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 23c | 441.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbccb…a425backed Yes | 9c | 360.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…6879backed Yes | 23c | 278.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…3f87backed Yes | 22c | 265.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 18c | 222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 78c | 139.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 19c | 130.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b9…e864backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0896…daf1backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a7…c9debacked Yes | 22c | 81.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8c…6449backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…5959backed Yes | 22c | 52.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb39…6f51backed Yes | 25c | 43.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…7770backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liverpool vs. Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09?Yes won
- Will Villa win on 2024-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.