Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44157aef5487390557f807a2b494f98dc8f356b3822d5c5e024191e6692d80df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 43c | 348.53$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 321.4$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 52c | 288.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 279$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 227.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 187.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 50c | 170.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 30c | 144.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 45c | 138.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 136.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 136$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 124.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 111.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 110.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 109.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 33c | 98.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 43c | 98.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 19c | 94.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 40c | 82.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 57c | 81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 69.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…145bbacked Yes | 42c | 59.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 54c | 56.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 50c | 49.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 52c | 47.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 62c | 47.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 46.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 45.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…14ebbacked Yes | 41c | 41.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 39.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…da86backed Yes | 54c | 36.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 36.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 35.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 35c | 35.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 35.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 34.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 44c | 34.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 39c | 33.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…aa70backed No | 61c | 32.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 34c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 70c | 32.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 27.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 49c | 26.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 61c | 25.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 23.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 71c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 48c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.