Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a468d0e6cfeb7906bf798c7495ea29f3becd18cd1e08aee5a7d0ab6eb6bd55f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 409.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 27c | 406.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 310.83$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 293.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 68c | 191.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 42c | 173.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 167$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 127.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 21c | 105.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 30c | 101.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 30c | 100.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 58c | 93.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 31c | 84.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 48c | 82.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 32c | 81.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 78.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 76.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 75.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…145bbacked Yes | 35c | 71.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 39c | 63.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…9a1abacked Yes | 32c | 62.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 48c | 62.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 31c | 62.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 55.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 52.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 52.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 50.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…5ec7backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…e517backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5186…2515backed Yes | 33c | 48.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 37c | 47.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 35c | 42.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…14ebbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 39.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 43c | 38.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 37.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…da86backed Yes | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 35.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 65c | 35.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 34c | 34.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 35c | 33.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 51c | 32.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 31.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…07acbacked No | 66c | 31.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 66c | 30.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 30.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90de…5b73backed Yes | 47c | 30.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 30.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 29.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 69c | 27.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 26.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 26.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 60c | 24.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 54c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 20.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 77c | 19.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 19.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 61c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…13b5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.