Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x443032fd196245bc6596a0dac3813e732df87d89d3ec3b5b6f2911eec3045bec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 20c | 333.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 309.03$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 75c | 266.85$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 248.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 47c | 209.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 42c | 155.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 53c | 142.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 41c | 126.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 112.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 107.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 48c | 98.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 35c | 95.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 60c | 94.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 49c | 90.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 48c | 70.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 41c | 69.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 68.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 71c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 42c | 58.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 19c | 55.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked Yes | 43c | 53.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…6e6dbacked No | 20c | 51.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 50.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 49.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 43.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 41c | 39.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 39.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 65c | 38.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…bf68backed Yes | 51c | 38.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 40c | 36.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 61c | 36.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…07c6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 59c | 26.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 56c | 25.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No | 54c | 25.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 56c | 24.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…4e14backed Yes | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 47c | 23.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 43c | 23.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 75c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 79c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed Yes | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.