Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7882a92be8e35cd58f920dd8028a6da90f4e2552c9e910843a36ef409734b854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 38c | 488.71$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.93 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 14c | 365.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 307.72$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 307.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 298.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 285.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 248.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 245.9$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 76c | 224.26$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 26c | 204.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 14c | 200.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 33c | 142.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed No | 76c | 133.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 130.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 121.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 120.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 109.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 106.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 41c | 104.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 103$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 102.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 27c | 98.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 94.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 94.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 89.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 84.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 33c | 84.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 79.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 77.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 74.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 68.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 67.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 65.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 64.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 73c | 63.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 31c | 61.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 25c | 59.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 73c | 59.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 31c | 58.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 72c | 57.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 53.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 31c | 49.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 24c | 48.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 48.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 47.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 43.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 42.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 64c | 42.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 30c | 39.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 37c | 39.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 71c | 36.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 62c | 36.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 64c | 35.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 74c | 32.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 31.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 27.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 73c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 72c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 71c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 68c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 67c | 19.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 72c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…492bbacked No | 76c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.