Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x443fbcaae2f2cbdeb1df03f7830d56db49f999a7ff9dee92f0a386402fcc4083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 20c | 5,274$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,219.2 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 19c | 2,689$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.63 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 2,329$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.93 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 18c | 1,727$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.96 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 23c | 710.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.35 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 25c | 581$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.75 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 23c | 569.42$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.44 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 22c | 549.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 486.6$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.68 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 23c | 371.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.91 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 23c | 359$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.38 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 22c | 289.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 22c | 251.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.92 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…edf9backed No | 78c | 238.82$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 74cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 225.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…1dbbbacked No | 78c | 180.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 22c | 174.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 78c | 153.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d44…6b0abacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4c…3006backed Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 76c | 88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +214.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd006…d42ebacked Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…7c12backed Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…e492backed No | 77c | 59.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5d…d1a1backed No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…9747backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…3c00backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2237…d673backed No | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…2a0ebacked No | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…df85backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde47…aa74backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…abfcbacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0d…e976backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…f4dbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…621abacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…e479backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…70febacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…51fbbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…cadcbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…435dbacked No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.