Champions League · resolved market
Will Celtic vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x445fedd6310e305084ba634211d23760252791c7c76672404c4890ee64efeaa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 20c | 19,150$3,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,916.65 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…e01fbacked Yes | 9c | 9,900$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,009 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 45c | 5,120$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…1f21backed Yes | 10c | 5,001$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Yes | 24c | 1,472$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 9c | 1,118$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.56 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 32c | 833.34$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.81 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes | 34c | 702.69$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 10c | 557$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.74 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes | 57c | 548.26$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.93 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 78c | 482.31$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.47 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes | 23c | 443.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +343.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…95c4backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +282.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 9c | 349.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.49 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 40c | 334.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.63 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…c26dbacked Yes | 11c | 294.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +112%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 19c | 268.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 73c | 225.75$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…d29ebacked Yes | 10c | 204.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +286.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…650fbacked Yes | 22c | 201.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 52c | 186.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Yes | 53c | 186.49$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…e851backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +138%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 10c | 142.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.37 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 42c | 104.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…2edabacked Yes | 58c | 96.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…1811backed Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…af7abacked Yes | 72c | 66.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 17c | 58.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bef…0526backed Yes | 71c | 36.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…8c54backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403e…7acabacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…9401backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celtic vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw?this page
- Will Celtic win on 2025-08-20?No won
- Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.