Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44619fec0dfb8834e4dc0a119b30f6a9df67c8ae603fb56b584c1f52fea8d9d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 2c | 6,222$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 19c | 3,277$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.5 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 17c | 3,153$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.27 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…f760backed No | 2c | 2,176$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 22c | 1,649$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.04 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed No | 17c | 1,610$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.61 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 74c | 1,412$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.54 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 25c | 1,246$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.68 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 19c | 1,218$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.56 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed No | 20c | 1,095$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…a60cbacked No | 22c | 1,028$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked No | 5c | 923.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +19.0wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked No | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 2c | 686$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 19c | 622.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 70c | 515.89$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 28c | 500.6$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Yes | 78c | 500.11$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.54 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 6c | 484$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 19c | 456.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed No | 29c | 451.88$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 6c | 344.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…4a26backed Yes | 59c | 292$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 79c | 279.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 6c | 206.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed No | 18c | 206.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Yes | 75c | 194.68$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 79c | 190.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 22c | 167.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 22c | 162.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 22c | 132.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf9…3ddbbacked Yes | 76c | 131.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 22c | 107.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 78c | 105.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…60c6backed No | 14c | 93.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 78c | 70.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 18c | 62.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8a…f7abbacked No | 21c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed No | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Yes | 79c | 53.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 26c | 49.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Yes | 73c | 44.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 75c | 40.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 79c | 37.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2dfabacked Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 77c | 34.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Yes | 78c | 33.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 77c | 30.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 73c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked No | 39c | 26.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Yes | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 30 | 90%27 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 79cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…26d7backed Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 80c | 22.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 79c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…0986backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-09?this page
- Will Derry City FC win on 2026-07-09?No won
- Will PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.