Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449102352a9993aec42e912d63ecd103abf5ff1df4f2b59099c4bd5eb48dcb89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb902…0e5bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 72c | 711.54$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.27 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 531.18$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 358.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 79c | 325$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 79c | 307.05$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 18c | 261.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 242.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 230.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 198.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 28c | 196.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 78c | 195.44$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 174.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 171.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 163.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 32c | 160.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 21c | 141.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 136.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 37c | 135.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 134.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 23c | 126.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 124.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed Yes | 26c | 119.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 37c | 110.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 110.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 110.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 66c | 110.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 22c | 108.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 100.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 98.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 18c | 98.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 65c | 90.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…9b40backed Yes | 48c | 83.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 80.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 16c | 70.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 69.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 43c | 61.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed Yes | 23c | 60.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 59.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 58.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 57.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 73c | 54.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 30c | 52.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1003…7a79backed Yes | 32c | 49.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 36c | 46.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 44.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 74c | 44.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 69c | 42.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…de7dbacked Yes | 34c | 41.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 69c | 40.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 33c | 37.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…eab7backed No | 68c | 36.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 71cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 69c | 27.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 73c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 61c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 68c | 23.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 70c | 22.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 65c | 21.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…1d1abacked No | 69c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…7deebacked No | 72c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 78c | 18.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…f13abacked No | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…d22dbacked No | 72c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.