Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76cbc60bc297d1dd8874497ea3896399c9bf8b4ae23a04310dd6effd891b5fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 1c | 25,253$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.19 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 4c | 1,380$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918f…907cbacked No | 1c | 1,341$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 30c | 830.83$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.25 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed No | 2c | 626.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 534.93$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 62c | 401.88$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.56 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 70c | 338.79$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 15c | 324.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 69c | 301.19$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 68c | 255.26$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 40c | 246.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.11 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 233.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.18 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 227.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 79c | 198.28$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 193.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 63c | 163.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 163.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 42c | 157.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 37c | 150.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 53c | 145.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 71c | 137.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 39c | 120.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 116.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 35c | 115.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 71c | 109.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 40c | 93.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 79c | 89.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 49c | 86.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 37c | 81.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 75.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…9b40backed Yes | 64c | 74.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 64c | 73.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 65.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 23c | 58.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 66c | 56.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 57c | 54.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 32c | 52.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 52.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 49.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 63c | 49.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 62c | 45.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 69c | 40.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 40.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 38c | 39.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 64c | 37.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 36.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 35.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 70c | 34.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 35c | 31.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1003…7a79backed Yes | 40c | 31.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 40c | 30.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 62c | 25.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 79c | 23.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 67c | 20.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 80c | 18.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 77c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.