Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle win on 2024-10-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a2c0327128c95af4792c8d0253ffc1273b5031d5bdd8916d02ef3053aa4aa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 1,553$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.76 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 24c | 417.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…2555backed Yes | 28c | 318.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Yes | 22c | 299.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…53cebacked Yes | 34c | 296.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 77c | 293.79$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 17c | 276.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 73c | 270.79$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2450…947ebacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 66c | 221.05$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…73d5backed Yes | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6677backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…e85ebacked No | 78c | 169.85$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4590…989abacked Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…a0c5backed No | 78c | 148.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…5e80backed Yes | 23c | 147.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 21c | 141.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…c162backed Yes | 23c | 136.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 77c | 109.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f6…8afbbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 77c | 87.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefd8…b7fabacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…fff1backed No | 79c | 78.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…6c29backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27a6…9879backed No | 80c | 50.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…1a23backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…7da0backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…e549backed No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe0…7de0backed No | 78c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-10-27?this page
- Will Chelsea vs. Newcastle end in a draw?No won
- Will Chelsea win on 2024-10-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.