Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44adb47aefd7f8671b8d1fdb9dcb0ffec8d6ae0faef3578754f28c7ad464da5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 60c | 21,667$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 40c | 15,910$6,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,545.83 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 40c | 5,252$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.48 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked No | 38c | 666.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 367.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.47 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 54c | 356.72$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.27 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 345.59$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.41 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 43c | 330.12$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 64c | 242.17$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 28c | 192.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.86 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 182$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 37c | 155.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Yes | 78c | 129.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 37c | 114.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 24c | 103.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 90.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 27c | 72.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 72.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 23c | 64.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 43c | 40.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 43c | 40.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 65c | 35.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…a57bbacked No | 41c | 29.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 45c | 26.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-02-28?No won
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-02-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.