Serie A · resolved market
Will Atalanta BC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44be540417e469ae0b5cab867a0bd58db76ffbf1f35114e4f7d562c13119ed2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc94a…9401backed No | 76c | 3,738$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 3,613$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.96 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 74c | 901.64$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.43 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 76c | 453.3$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 9c | 255.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 75c | 203.84$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 25c | 198.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 75c | 198.95$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed No | 74c | 175$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 78c | 107.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 13c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…b5dabacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 42.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca8…1148backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atalanta BC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-30?No won
- Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.