Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x451e2991f7180f8dd20c5ded8c1136ce0a7475496d5eca3fa01c78f3c35ea3ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 5c | 439.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 374.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed Yes | 22c | 178.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.92$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 138.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 22c | 89.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 80.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 76c | 71.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 16c | 68.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 67.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 65.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 64.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 26c | 58.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 57.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 21c | 55.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…c4b2backed No | 80c | 54.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 54.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 38.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 33.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 31.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d7…7fc5backed No | 77c | 24.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 78c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.