Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf0a597d1969965a1ce38821a695ccc0eef0035d026eb8f48856be3368ca19af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 628.24$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.6 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 33c | 323.42$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 35c | 273.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 268.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 33c | 208.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.58 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 189.07$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 28c | 185.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.52 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 166.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 164.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 163.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 162.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 155.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 154.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 40c | 148$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…4eaebacked No | 60c | 143.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 130.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 129.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 37c | 127.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 39c | 124.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 123.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 116.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 108.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 97.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 88.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 87.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 78.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 76.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 65.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…2e16backed Yes | 32c | 61.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 60.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 60.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 59.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6439…cd01backed Yes | 67c | 59.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 59.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 31c | 56.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked No | 50c | 46.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…64ccbacked No | 52c | 45.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 42.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 25c | 42.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 45c | 39.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 52c | 38.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…5eb9backed Yes | 53c | 37.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 35c | 36.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 47c | 36.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 59c | 35.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 45c | 32.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 31.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 28.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 25.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 63c | 21.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 76c | 19.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 18.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 75c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.