Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4550f5e3c8d3f41b80ce914592720cdeb8d87274706c62fa9807ef6083b1b6ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 10c | 24,789$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.11 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 10,317$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.26 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 3c | 10,286$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.55 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…3bbfbacked Yes | 9c | 8,654$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 7,249$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.5 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,437$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 4,458$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 1c | 2,885$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 2,261$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 6c | 1,872$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 13c | 1,490$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.82 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…378abacked Yes | 7c | 1,144$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…0a84backed Yes | 12c | 1,022$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 4c | 950$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 6c | 906.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed Yes | 9c | 788.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe774…6457backed Yes | 5c | 690.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…879abacked Yes | 6c | 495.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 7c | 380.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b6…b99abacked Yes | 14c | 380$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ef…5691backed Yes | 5c | 328.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 6c | 293.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 4c | 272.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 76c | 263.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…d5e9backed Yes | 14c | 220.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…b4c6backed Yes | 7c | 215.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe1…5d8bbacked Yes | 7c | 204.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed Yes | 9c | 185.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…b8bfbacked Yes | 9c | 127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…936fbacked Yes | 17c | 111.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…da0cbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 July 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.