TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 6-12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$237,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6259…c692backed Yes0c17,534$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.83130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes27c6,792$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes8c6,209$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.1478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaab…d63fbacked Yes1c5,920$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.61100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes23c4,601$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.4558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes15c4,390$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.9728021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7655…5661backed No55c4,266$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.513930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071e…a103backed No79c3,640$2,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.2757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd143…83ecbacked Yes6c3,529$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.810221.6%22 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf52a…e276backed Yes2c3,100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes5c2,537$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.276613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c2,331$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0128113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c2,256$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309b…13d4backed Yes14c2,032$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2871421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes8c2,005$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.727112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes4c1,975$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.259927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes24c1,900$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4481288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa356…2128backed Yes6c1,836$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe774…6457backed Yes4c1,765$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.73210%0 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,424$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.621,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3360…955bbacked Yes1c1,004$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.044311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d74…596bbacked Yes1c827.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-92.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef91…97b1backed Yes17c820.41$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.47616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes12c742.38$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.09812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-69.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e0…42b1backed Yes3c711.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc8…f1b3backed No60c700$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes24c637.65$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6413117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2296…c80cbacked Yes3c608.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes46c551.95$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.7311330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes2c508.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.563215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb8…b468backed Yes3c505.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92de…30b4backed Yes20c476.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.13757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b9…b4c6backed Yes28c433.66$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc581…6d06backed Yes3c409.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No62c400.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7721651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6685…0622backed No67c373.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.133148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes20c312.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1311328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13ef…5691backed Yes26c307.58$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.481338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.48521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x731e…d7c9backed No71c299.95$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f8…e629backed Yes26c287.94$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.213010%3 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-81.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x36ee…b8bfbacked Yes25c281.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes19c269.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15f9…9a3dbacked Yes66c223.36$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.421136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d8…6fcfbacked No45c199.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.991118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed Yes31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.53339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a99…c413backed No75c146.73$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.732050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2503…9be5backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes11c142.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.971024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes24c141.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.13915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6768…fa71backed Yes23c140.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.051338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f6c…e10dbacked Yes23c140$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.22450%12 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1944…c05dbacked No61c138.19$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.114969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+23.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb5ff…3fcdbacked Yes55c136.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-72.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed Yes18c134.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.542437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa813…04fbbacked Yes39c128.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.399964.6%64 W · 35 L+17.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe4fa…d14fbacked Yes27c104.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba15…7579backed No76c103.07$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.745442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…62ebbacked Yes22c103.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes25c100.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick30cpaid-76.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd58a…5448backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca3…d39bbacked Yes32c96.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb802…b7bfbacked Yes17c88.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaac7…64babacked No79c88.34$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41376.9%10 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick77cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4462…b29bbacked Yes29c80.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.341711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-60.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe36c…1369backed Yes49c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.260%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa324…c18abacked No69c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.82657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fcb…0521backed No69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4043…19cfbacked No77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.13053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1f…3537backed No77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.12857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2170…2883backed Yes43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes23c69.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-62.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.578038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x548c…af84backed Yes32c63.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked No73c58.48$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.692740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes57c57.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.585954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…e4edbacked Yes28c55.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.571414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5da6…370dbacked Yes44c43.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.091369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5911…28bbbacked Yes33c40.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb137…a040backed Yes57c39.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ad…c163backed No70c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21921.1%4 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick10cpaid+165.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed No72c17.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.838634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8cd…7b25backed No76c17.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x232a…4895backed No73c13.72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.