Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c37e742c032c5a50f42bfef10192e7e333dabf167a7e9593ed055e8f0ebfce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 3c | 19,708$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.62 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…3962backed Yes | 5c | 13,009$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.24 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 4c | 7,524$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.32 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,151$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 3c | 6,438$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.16 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c692backed Yes | 0c | 6,340$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 6,057$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…f290backed Yes | 4c | 5,189$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 5,112$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 2c | 4,940$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…e94fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,075$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 2,424$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 5c | 2,332$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,246$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 2c | 2,163$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…34bcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,868$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,636$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…e04bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,416$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,361$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…d717backed Yes | 4c | 1,248$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 6c | 1,117$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9574…2e6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,006$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…879abacked Yes | 5c | 657.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 2c | 641.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 499.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 6c | 489.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Yes | 3c | 440.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…d7e0backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cd77backed Yes | 10c | 395.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…77d6backed Yes | 3c | 392.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…b8bfbacked Yes | 3c | 346$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…1007backed Yes | 14c | 159.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 July 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.