Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x456095b6b3b5581404ac1d3044eda6a3d1d1a6a500534a95a683c57017f05c89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 355.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 6,932 | 53.1%3,680 W · 3,252 L | +424.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 350$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.95 | 4,728 | 26.5%1,255 W · 3,473 L | +64.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 51c | 326.11$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.67 | 1,509 | 24.7%373 W · 1,136 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 40c | 298.17$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.55 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 294.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 1,972 | 55.8%1,101 W · 871 L | -36.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 42c | 277.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 263 | 57.4%151 W · 112 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 63c | 243.76$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 216.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 3,086 | 33.4%1,032 W · 2,054 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 161.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 4,485 | 53.7%2,407 W · 2,078 L | -17.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 128.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 12,587 | 46.8%5,897 W · 6,690 L | -42.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 35c | 112.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 473 | 39.7%188 W · 285 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 104.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 7,234 | 9.3%675 W · 6,559 L | -1,116.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 20c | 97.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 697 | 50.8%354 W · 343 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 89.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 4,030 | 47.3%1,907 W · 2,123 L | +70.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 51c | 87.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 469 | 56.1%263 W · 206 L | +54.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 29c | 84.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,487 | 58.5%870 W · 617 L | +71.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 82.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 2,246 | 56%1,257 W · 989 L | +48.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 30c | 68.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 63.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2,243 | 56%1,256 W · 987 L | +53.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 20c | 60.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,270 | 59.8%760 W · 510 L | +37.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 17c | 60.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 559 | 48.3%270 W · 289 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 52c | 59.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 579 | 54.6%316 W · 263 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 54.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 27c | 53.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,313 | 59.2%1,370 W · 943 L | +117.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 51.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,298 | 57.3%1,317 W · 981 L | +71.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 48.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2,272 | 58.3%1,324 W · 948 L | +86.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 45.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,233 | 56.7%1,266 W · 967 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 44.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,214 | 56.8%1,257 W · 957 L | +69.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 44.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,302 | 58.3%1,342 W · 960 L | +85.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 26c | 44.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 909 | 55.8%507 W · 402 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 43.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 5,687 | 47.9%2,723 W · 2,964 L | +78.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 27c | 43.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 38.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 3,212 | 53.6%1,721 W · 1,491 L | -103.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 29c | 38.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,242 | 59.1%1,326 W · 916 L | +111.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 36.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2,267 | 57%1,292 W · 975 L | +70.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 34.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,292 | 56.8%1,302 W · 990 L | +68.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 33.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,255 | 56.9%1,284 W · 971 L | +64.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 35c | 32.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 13,028 | 20.7%2,692 W · 10,336 L | -2,701.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4,323 | 53.6%2,317 W · 2,006 L | +158.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,740 | 52.6%915 W · 825 L | -42.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,162 | 63.5%738 W · 424 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.