Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4570913fa14ae290a0808763d5b4b03a3366cde51b72d6361a88c78def1a31e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Hoosiersof Michigan Wolverines, Indiana Hoosiers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 9,043$5,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,035.92 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 4,000$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.4 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 3,006$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.06 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 3,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 42c | 2,445$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.31 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 2,372$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.57 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 2,069$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.48 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 1,591$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.97 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 42c | 1,375$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.75 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 682.99$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.99 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Indiana Hoosiers | 50c | 598.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.01 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 414$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.1 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 285.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Indiana Hoosiers | 50c | 201.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…7eb9backed Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 90.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Indiana Hoosiers | 39c | 62.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…12dcbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 56.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…3e32backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 56.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…e18abacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 55.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 53.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Indiana Hoosiers | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e8…63a9backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 49.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Indiana Hoosiers | 50c | 41.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…d86dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 50c | 40.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c5…2e08backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 39.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…5537backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…d529backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…341dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…6d6dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…a959backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…082ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5958…6ad8backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…69f1backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 33.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 30.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 24.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…5d15backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 20.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd1…4ac6backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 20.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 50c | 20.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d47…1f06backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 19.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2864…5260backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 19.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)this page
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 162.5Under won
- Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 163.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.