Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Popyrin vs. Tiafoe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459187a6a1fd72646e8e00eb1e72fbff8455a27d0380e50bc03203defb2a7b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Popyrin, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Popyrin | 49c | 4,907$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…e058backed Tiafoe | 51c | 2,867$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…dbdcbacked Tiafoe | 51c | 2,753$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Popyrin | 50c | 1,205$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed Popyrin | 46c | 850.01$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Popyrin | 51c | 814.42$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed Tiafoe | 50c | 800$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Tiafoe | 49c | 686.42$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Tiafoe | 50c | 639.17$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Popyrin | 49c | 261.05$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Popyrin | 21c | 200.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…9a6ebacked Tiafoe | 51c | 198.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…bec9backed Popyrin | 52c | 196.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Popyrin | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Tiafoe | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Tiafoe | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 103 | 18.4%19 W · 84 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Tiafoe | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed Popyrin | 51c | 74.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Tiafoe | 50c | 69.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a4…8631backed Popyrin | 50c | 64.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Popyrin | 50c | 59.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Tiafoe | 52c | 59.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Tiafoe | 48c | 58.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Popyrin | 60c | 55.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…da86backed Tiafoe | 79c | 51.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Popyrin | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Tiafoe | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…f16dbacked Popyrin | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Tiafoe | 49c | 29.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Popyrin | 58c | 28.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88dd…5767backed Popyrin | 51c | 26.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Tiafoe | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.