Premier League · resolved market
Wrexham AFC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4592e712b501b0002f100d1cbc535728d9dd8faaf65aced0cc8bed9e91e7ac42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,163 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 4,717$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.03 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 76c | 4,081$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.64 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Over | 27c | 865.44$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 20c | 769$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 73c | 765.79$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.26 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Over | 27c | 735.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 24c | 634.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 75c | 546.67$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 25c | 417.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over | 27c | 385.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 75c | 345.37$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 25c | 320.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 25c | 151.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 362 | 59.1%214 W · 148 L | +23.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Over | 26c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 97.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Under | 75c | 87.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +10.2wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 73c | 87.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 26c | 63.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 269 | 59.9%161 W · 108 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 76c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 73c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…eecdbacked Under | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked Under | 75c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -6.5wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wrexham AFC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Wrexham AFC (-1.5)Wrexham AFC won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Swansea City AFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.