Serie A · resolved market
Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45aa0b108655b61878f326c085f5fc950442123a3a7b8aa2f2961a57b6dcafd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 2,355$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.22 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 42c | 1,180$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 50c | 984.13$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.13 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 46c | 873.77$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 857.09$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.64 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 850.69$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.08 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 38c | 661.41$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.97 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 602.44$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.73 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 49c | 513.78$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…7505backed Over | 25c | 464.84$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 50c | 396.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 28c | 311.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…b50bbacked Under | 76c | 239.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 52c | 214.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 24c | 203.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…54cbbacked Over | 52c | 176.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 8c | 147.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Over | 34c | 132$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…390cbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…5dcebacked Over | 17c | 94.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 52c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 71.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 53c | 55.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 52c | 43.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…c202backed Over | 53c | 39.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 57c | 32.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…5ee7backed Under | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 23.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c4…252ebacked Under | 62c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.