Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45c947968b0e43a7659aeb82cb3058a73c8c26ddfebcd291630e96e486d539f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 1c | 3,900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 2c | 2,722$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,390$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,295$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,021$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 1c | 905.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 12c | 794.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 10c | 738.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 10c | 599.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 40c | 498.62$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 436.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 376.4$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 22c | 374.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 8c | 336.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 317.67$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 7c | 280.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 23c | 255.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 250.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 247.23$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 42c | 236.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 214.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 20c | 204.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…c09ebacked Yes | 23c | 197.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Yes | 25c | 195$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 54c | 183.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 13c | 182.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 177.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 22c | 173.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked Yes | 6c | 171$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 161.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 156.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…c92dbacked Yes | 22c | 152.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed Yes | 20c | 149.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 61c | 145.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 143.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…238cbacked Yes | 13c | 113.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 112.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 73c | 105.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed Yes | 12c | 102.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 99.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 59c | 96.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 27c | 90.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 80.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 15c | 77.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 22c | 75.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c90…c4bbbacked Yes | 27c | 74.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…31f6backed Yes | 28c | 72.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 25c | 71.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 71c | 67.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes | 43c | 65.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…dd7dbacked No | 79c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes | 23c | 64.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 32c | 62.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 79c | 61.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…b092backed Yes | 33c | 60.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…63b4backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 24c | 59.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 40c | 49.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 75c | 47.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 66c | 44.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 41c | 44.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…9795backed No | 78c | 43.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 35c | 42.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 24c | 41.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…afbdbacked No | 57c | 35.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…0292backed Yes | 42c | 33.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…4929backed No | 64c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…2ffcbacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…a2b1backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…be81backed Yes | 41c | 26.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 74c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 21.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9284…3c42backed No | 69c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…e2bfbacked No | 73c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707c…bb74backed No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 74c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.