TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,851 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec3a…a709backed No19c4,271$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.655451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…65cfbacked Yes62c1,988$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.361741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No16c1,042$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1261821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes50c1,015$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.54,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed No4c968.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1614719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes63c784.33$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.8566543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked No73c604.38$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes60c598.76$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c542.34$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.412,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes38c494.89$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.337229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes34c462.97$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.4734617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed No3c425.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.483234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c407.7$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.2617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No31c399.97$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes61c398.16$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.091560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked No60c390.76$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.222339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes36c378.36$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.41,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes61c327.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8311646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c324.22$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No15c310.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2636819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No40c308.19$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.329922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86f…0292backed Yes16c268.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes37c257.88$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.521,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes17c247.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.761,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No37c243.15$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.071,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes54c238.05$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.77323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes67c228.39$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5792028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes40c227.01$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.429429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes18c225.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.083432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes14c215.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.622236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes42c210.87$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2712744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No72c210.09$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1861760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes53c208.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2760851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa381…5fc5backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.81633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes51c196.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.233850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes62c190.22$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed No17c179.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.58017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes38c179.29$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8432548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No43c172.87$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6744553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfa3…63dbbacked Yes30c163.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+65.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes38c161.16$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.826834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed No39c160$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.54346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No49c154.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7541070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes33c151.67$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1726339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed Yes34c148$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.682326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No42c143.94$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0314442.4%61 W · 83 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c143.75$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.613,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed No32c140$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.357233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes72c139.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.331643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd555…fdbabacked Yes35c132.43$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes9c129$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.393333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes48c127.23$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.233336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes31c126.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.253228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d4…2eb3backed Yes62c119.2$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes41c118$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7410650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No53c113.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.664235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes74c109.17$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.83342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes43c107.93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.163,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.89955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3923633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.27737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2515759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4fc…c6aabacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303246.9%15 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+56.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8683…d8bbbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4828718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes50c99.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.228737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes44c98.74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.761659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5813533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes56c95.84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8411436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf08…6008backed Yes19c93.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+158.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes29c92.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4416924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes50c91.14$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.417,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed No62c87.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.36538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes56c81.24$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5316465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes77c80.97$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7722236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd90…0a27backed Yes48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+86.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf587…f3e0backed Yes40c75.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.34875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes52c72.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0829642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55d0…a380backed Yes20c69.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.784238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc094…3234backed Yes30c66.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.95633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabba…58bbbacked Yes70c65.22$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.611471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed No31c63.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes28c61.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2210053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4ca0…63b4backed Yes44c60.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.232441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.625725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b0…6d29backed Yes60c58.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes36c55.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2512357.7%71 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes60c55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes69c54.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.983826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No77c54.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4234457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6c…00a8backed Yes64c54.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.421040%4 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cda…3d8abacked Yes38c51.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.951250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ba…c51bbacked No38c49.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.