Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5856ed780d2a4f16454446c8d2861c83717a8857e5fc2d91e24e572bfec756ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 19c | 4,271$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.65 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 62c | 1,988$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 16c | 1,042$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 1,015$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed No | 4c | 968.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 63c | 784.33$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.85 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 73c | 604.38$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 60c | 598.76$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.11 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 542.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.41 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 38c | 494.89$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.33 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 34c | 462.97$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.47 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed No | 3c | 425.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 407.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 31c | 399.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes | 61c | 398.16$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked No | 60c | 390.76$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 378.36$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.4 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 61c | 327.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 324.22$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 15c | 310.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 40c | 308.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…0292backed Yes | 16c | 268.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 37c | 257.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 247.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.76 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 243.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 54c | 238.05$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 67c | 228.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 40c | 227.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 18c | 225.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.08 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes | 14c | 215.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.62 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 42c | 210.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 210.09$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.18 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 53c | 208.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa381…5fc5backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 51c | 196.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 62c | 190.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 17c | 179.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 38c | 179.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 43c | 172.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa3…63dbbacked Yes | 30c | 163.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 38c | 161.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 49c | 154.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 33c | 151.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 34c | 148$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 42c | 143.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 143.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed No | 32c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 72c | 139.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 35c | 132.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 9c | 129$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 48c | 127.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 31c | 126.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…2eb3backed Yes | 62c | 119.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 41c | 118$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 53c | 113.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 74c | 109.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 107.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…d8bbbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 44c | 98.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 56c | 95.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…6008backed Yes | 19c | 93.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +158.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 29c | 92.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 91.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed No | 62c | 87.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 56c | 81.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 77c | 80.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…0a27backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…f3e0backed Yes | 40c | 75.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 52c | 72.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 20c | 69.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…3234backed Yes | 30c | 66.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabba…58bbbacked Yes | 70c | 65.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed No | 31c | 63.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 28c | 61.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…63b4backed Yes | 44c | 60.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…6d29backed Yes | 60c | 58.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 69c | 54.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 54.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…00a8backed Yes | 64c | 54.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…3d8abacked Yes | 38c | 51.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…c51bbacked No | 38c | 49.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.