TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on February 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,062
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,062 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec3a…a709backed Yes20c4,433$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.85451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…65cfbacked No57c3,369$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.41741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes50c1,442$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7173336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes3c1,273$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No63c1,036$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.9427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes2c1,006$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No25c999.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.4824010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes3c985.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe55…f943backed Yes14c966.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.36728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes43c900$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.7412624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed No77c899.98$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c887.69$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.112,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Yes5c833.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.384235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes32c738.16$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.9766543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes4c688.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8414719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked No70c679.29$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes23c669.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.732339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes5c571.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.33387.9%3 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes8c537.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.372236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed Yes20c520$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No30c504.44$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.8326339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes51c498.39$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes48c492.93$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.857229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes32c485.59$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9861821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes40c469.49$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb2b1…4a60backed Yes4c449.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202564%16 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked No52c429.37$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.787950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes60c415.17$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.387323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No34c397.19$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.332818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No76c377.28$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes5c354.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13769.2%7 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No35c350$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.1324149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c342.43$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes12c340.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.641,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes13c331.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.289262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x59b2…b787backed No70c328.51$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked No62c324.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3524216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes41c312.5$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4729922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes32c312.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes5c310.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c308.79$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.771,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked No43c287.32$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.323652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes47c276.12$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.985056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes23c271.16$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7718316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes7c269.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.613234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c8…c312backed Yes5c264.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes10c259.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.432532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes22c257.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.487233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes31c252.53$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0632548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.051,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed Yes25c244.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.14346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No41c241.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.673,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Yes70c235.87$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.253056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes68c222.34$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes17c216.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.934517.8%8 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes26c210.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7712744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes66c201.12$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.291,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No77c200$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4715759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No33c199.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9128718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes25c194.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0e9…15bdbacked Yes26c189.58$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…a380backed Yes9c186.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.714238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7447…1480backed Yes75c178.37$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5110518.1%19 W · 86 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked No78c176.78$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6822236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3984…20e8backed Yes16c175.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.141258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No57c172.82$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0510246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes28c164.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2935432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes52c161.16$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6326834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes18c160.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.288017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes60c152.4$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7520631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xae9f…b671backed Yes66c150.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No61c148.01$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1944553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39f1…ebd1backed Yes11c146.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e8…9d0bbacked Yes49c141.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0172…adf9backed Yes10c138.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.47728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…678cbacked Yes19c137.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.481877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes57c129.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0760851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes68c123.84$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7229642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes14c121$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.373531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes67c114.92$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.166258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed No33c111$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4932444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3acc…31f6backed Yes17c105.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No79c104.52$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.258068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17b…3f39backed Yes33c104.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca0…63b4backed Yes70c102.48$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2923633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed No26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.87737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa381…5fc5backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fc…c6aabacked No30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.993246.9%15 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+56.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes46c98.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4161659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed No61c94.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.953228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes28c90$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9114338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3e…d953backed No74c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.236369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc9d…423ebacked Yes16c89.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.89922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes32c84.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2747834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes32c84.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed Yes13c82.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.