MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45df56464f288a0fa269a2a0cf6a20088fe5e4049ba815cdb9c768f845d56556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 25,555$13,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,755.3 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 57c | 18,312$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,400 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 5,899$2,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,798.44 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 5,731$2,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,636.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 45c | 5,556$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.99 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 48c | 2,423$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.28 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 43c | 1,250$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.38 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 1,203$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 63c | 781.19$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.14 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 44c | 568$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 485.08$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 444.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 43c | 390$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 43c | 339$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.23 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 8c | 320$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 294.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 250.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 249.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 44c | 182$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 44c | 175.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 17c | 162.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 43c | 162.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 80c | 142.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 38c | 97.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 57c | 86.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 74.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 20c | 63.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 44c | 47.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 59c | 29.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 45c | 27.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 55c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 25.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 59c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Over | 57c | 17.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 57c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.