MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x816e53769f6d0c864c70ae79fed8a3cd1d2191ea976478b3925ab82c3bff3f33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 44,679$23,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,899.28 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 21,177$9,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,953.13 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 9,740$4,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,578 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 47c | 8,089$3,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.83 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 37c | 6,757$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.98 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 2,760$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.42 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 63c | 1,960$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.21 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 45c | 1,483$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.88 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 1,312$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.88 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.94 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 684$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.48 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 63c | 675.81$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.05 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 672.99$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Over | 47c | 650$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 641.83$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 585$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.95 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 63c | 507.61$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.59 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 317$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 63c | 279.9$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 260.63$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 47c | 240.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 172 | 45.9%79 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 63c | 142.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Under | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 124.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 46c | 85.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 70.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 61.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…fddabacked Over | 48c | 55.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 34c | 55.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 47c | 51.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 47c | 51.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 46.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Over | 41c | 33.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 63c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 63c | 16.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 69c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.