Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Martinez vs Darderi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45fc0bb9186e6964869f12302723de7d10bda1944b47625250e74907cc4bfc3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darderiof Martinez, Darderi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Darderi | 65c | 6,046$3,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.43 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Martinez | 35c | 5,720$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.99 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed Darderi | 65c | 310$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked Darderi | 65c | 310$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Martinez | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Martinez | 36c | 294$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 491 | 51.7%254 W · 237 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Martinez | 36c | 198$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…c3cabacked Darderi | 69c | 156.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Darderi | 66c | 152.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Martinez | 31c | 140.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Martinez | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Darderi | 65c | 119.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Darderi | 66c | 87.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Martinez | 36c | 75.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Martinez | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Martinez | 35c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Darderi | 65c | 36.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…7a6bbacked Darderi | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked Darderi | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Martinez | 36c | 29.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Martinez vs Darderithis page
- Estoril Open: Pedro Martinez vs Luciano DarderiLuciano Darderi won
- Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Martinez (+1.5)Darderi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.