WNBA · resolved market
Lynx vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45fc972c8eb4cca74d699fdcb1c6533cb0fd1c8e27cc7732860c1f43a4eb1c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Lynx, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 27c | 47,082$12,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,520.21 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Lynx | 74c | 39,664$29,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,320.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Lynx | 74c | 30,395$22,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,385.58 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Mercury | 26c | 11,437$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,437.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Mercury | 26c | 10,961$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,111.14 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Mercury | 28c | 6,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 28c | 3,358$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.56 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mercury | 33c | 2,736$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.7 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Mercury | 29c | 2,717$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mercury | 48c | 1,799$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.27 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Mercury | 28c | 1,331$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Mercury | 52c | 1,075$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.32 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Mercury | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lynx | 51c | 648$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.48 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 23c | 623$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.62 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Lynx | 54c | 588.15$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Mercury | 29c | 573.52$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Lynx | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Lynx | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lynx | 71c | 488.93$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.14 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Lynx | 65c | 416.28$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.78 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Mercury | 28c | 357.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 29c | 342.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.34 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Lynx | 57c | 307.45$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 33c | 304.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mercury | 28c | 299.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.49 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Mercury | 27c | 251.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Lynx | 71c | 237.41$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.56 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mercury | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Mercury | 26c | 191.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…51c6backed Lynx | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Mercury | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…183ebacked Mercury | 35c | 131.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Mercury | 43c | 130.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…a7d4backed Lynx | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Mercury | 27c | 101$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Lynx | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mercury | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lynx | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Mercury | 26c | 99.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…ce33backed Lynx | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Mercury | 27c | 88.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…1746backed Lynx | 71c | 86.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Mercury | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mercury | 27c | 80.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Lynx | 71c | 70.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Lynx | 73c | 69.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Lynx | 72c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…a3cabacked Mercury | 26c | 43.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…7853backed Lynx | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.