Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4612caeacefa4697ac1288847544be1cf67f7dbde256aa1714f9fe28f4da45b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 16c | 216.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.6 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 150.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 22c | 141.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 48c | 135.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 109$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 96.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 87.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 56c | 79.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 72.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 72.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 71.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 69.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 68.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 67.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 65.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 60.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 78c | 60.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 57.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 57.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 53.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 21c | 50.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 33c | 46.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 166 | 44%73 W · 93 L | +15.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 36c | 44.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 43.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 37c | 40.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 32c | 39.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 58c | 39.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 33.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 31.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 348 | 67.8%236 W · 112 L | +26.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…7895backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 73c | 26.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…1d6dbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 64c | 22.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 72c | 21.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…aa9cbacked Yes | 74c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 67c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.