Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b905df7838c9c34be7f1ff9e4f95ea082c5d28dffcb09911598fd0a770827d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 887.14$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.8 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…4bb7backed No | 70c | 872.09$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 26c | 590.63$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.25 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 435.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 266.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 79c | 246.36$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 27c | 236.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 196.67$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 22c | 194$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 193$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 31c | 185$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 171.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 15c | 155$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 153.04$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 75c | 149.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 145.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 28c | 136.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 12c | 132.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 68c | 129.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 128.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 123$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 24c | 116.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 30c | 116.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 862 | 30.7%265 W · 597 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 16c | 111.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 75c | 111.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad0…7733backed No | 72c | 110.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 29c | 109$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 15c | 104.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 44%73 W · 93 L | +15.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 17c | 99.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 98.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 85.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 81.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 80.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked Yes | 25c | 78.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 73.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 45c | 72.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 27c | 66.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 70c | 66.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 63.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 58.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 66c | 57.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 923 | 34.1%315 W · 608 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 54.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 32c | 52.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 71c | 46.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6670…9967backed Yes | 32c | 43.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 75c | 42.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 27c | 36.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 35.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 69c | 35.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 348 | 67.8%236 W · 112 L | +26.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…7895backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…1d6dbacked No | 76c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 57c | 21.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 99 | 34.3%34 W · 65 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 18.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…2c47backed No | 79c | 16.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.