Europa Conference League · resolved market
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x463438c84c2f28f88182b0f61cb2cc0163c806b459e47d02f3a9e496d51712c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 58c | 589.5$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.56 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 306.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.25 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 42c | 296.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Over | 57c | 263.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Over | 57c | 263.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 43c | 214.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 43c | 186.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…fcb2backed Over | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x026d…47edbacked Under | 43c | 125.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 116.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 87.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 43c | 78.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 77.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Over | 56c | 50.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 48c | 48.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Over | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 55c | 35.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…bed3backed Over | 57c | 35.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…da55backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 23.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 2.5this page
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 3.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 4.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 5.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: SK Rapid Wien 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Rapid Wien: SK Rapid Wien O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5)SK Rapid Wien won
- Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5)SK Rapid Wien won
- Spread: SK Rapid Wien (-1.5)Heart of Midlothian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.