Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x463d170276c840de9479f8144f5121c3fe0fb9d30cd700611d34ce059e4f555d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 4,786$3,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.02 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 4,157$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.46 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 31c | 1,143$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.23 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8d…b0e1backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 38c | 831.83$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.67 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 74c | 756.46$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.79 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Yes | 44c | 463$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 69c | 326.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 77c | 238.12$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…0ec0backed Yes | 23c | 213.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 12c | 205.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked No | 78c | 185$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 46c | 165.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 75c | 158.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 65c | 127.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 34c | 121.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 23c | 112.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 16c | 105.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 43c | 102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 71c | 95.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 67c | 85.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…b286backed Yes | 48c | 85.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed No | 75c | 84.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 24c | 66.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed No | 75c | 55.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9054…c40abacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 73c | 41.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes | 27c | 41.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed No | 73c | 40.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Yes | 29c | 37.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…859fbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 73c | 31.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 73c | 31.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 58c | 27.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 60c | 27.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 78c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 78c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 73c | 17.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 74c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 74c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.