Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4640c6d2e03d56ca06d4612643227119fdc381f5a5328fa6337d1d483197905c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33db…417abacked Up | 80c | 604.1$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.88 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 34c | 547.33$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.2 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Down | 16c | 399.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 35c | 289.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.64 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Down | 50c | 226.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +7.2wins | +0.32per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Down | 19c | 199.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 66c | 141$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…56c2backed Up | 73c | 134.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a4…5cbdbacked Up | 76c | 128.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…590ebacked Down | 19c | 119.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…bafbbacked Down | 26c | 101.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…fdf1backed Down | 48c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02a…86f7backed Up | 62c | 77.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Up | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…c7a0backed Down | 35c | 64.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…aa97backed Down | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 23c | 57.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Up | 54c | 53.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…678abacked Up | 55c | 49.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…4f4fbacked Up | 62c | 46.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…e7a2backed Up | 50c | 35.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Down | 37c | 31.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…af89backed Up | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5120…d51ebacked Up | 72c | 27.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Up | 75c | 25.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…81ccbacked Up | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…c6febacked Up | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b4…fdafbacked Up | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…242bbacked Down | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…492cbacked Up | 78c | 22.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…bd7cbacked Up | 60c | 22.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9967…846bbacked Up | 75c | 19.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0245…efd6backed Up | 60c | 19.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.