Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-01-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46514845f5eeb5c9b5d9935fe9d067048bb3b04678a47c273e96a992a08295d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,400 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 58c | 19,895$11,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,355.9 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 56c | 3,027$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.69 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 1,028$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.3 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 42c | 448$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.64 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 39c | 169.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 42c | 133.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 132.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 10c | 109.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 101.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98be…51d9backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…4313backed Yes | 63c | 78.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 21c | 66.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…5d73backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 64c | 47.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9276…081ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…18a9backed No | 60c | 45.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 44.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed No | 59c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes | 43c | 23.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd32…8580backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-01-16?this page
- Will SBV Excelsior vs. Telstar 1963 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-01-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.