Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Zverev vs. Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46525cade5bac87db67f8b8294e2719705dff68152f089eeae6ad43d8e69e4ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Zverev, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Zverev | 79c | 39,746$31,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,478.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Nakashima | 28c | 27,143$7,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,600 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Nakashima | 4c | 21,358$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.49 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Nakashima | 21c | 10,421$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.38 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Nakashima | 2c | 9,711$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Nakashima | 20c | 9,197$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Nakashima | 20c | 5,102$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Zverev | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed Nakashima | 36c | 930.28$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Nakashima | 35c | 888.89$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Zverev | 80c | 505$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6588…d868backed Nakashima | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…88bbbacked Nakashima | 21c | 290$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…f710backed Zverev | 80c | 290$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Zverev | 65c | 215$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Zverev | 66c | 189.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…a50bbacked Nakashima | 45c | 125.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…6a2fbacked Nakashima | 41c | 121.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Nakashima | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Nakashima | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Nakashima | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Zverev | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…6fffbacked Zverev | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Zverev | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Nakashima | 31c | 96.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Zverev | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…ed1fbacked Nakashima | 28c | 39.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Zverev | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Zverev | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +166.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.