Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x467e9b7d17853093c3c9e39848a04256c5476d2eef9ce17efd3b6d903af82bfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 30c | 32,463$9,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,865.66 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 8,250$5,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.8 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 7,216$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.49 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 5,962$4,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.65 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 69c | 4,948$3,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.86 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 3,034$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.18 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…c538backed Yes | 5c | 2,230$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,829$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 26c | 1,800$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed No | 75c | 1,736$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,693$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.94 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 28c | 877.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Yes | 12c | 855.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 69c | 591.98$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.19 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 29c | 551.72$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 70c | 525.53$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.34 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 31c | 397.07$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed No | 78c | 385$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked No | 69c | 346.88$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 6c | 299$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 19c | 265.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2196…aad2backed Yes | 11c | 260.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 80c | 232.59$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d292backed Yes | 9c | 193.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 11c | 184.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…0287backed Yes | 26c | 167.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Yes | 26c | 166.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…5729backed Yes | 31c | 114.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed No | 69c | 94.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked No | 69c | 89.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 20c | 53.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 49.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed No | 69c | 35.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…0930backed Yes | 31c | 33.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 69c | 33.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…6220backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…7a49backed No | 69c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 73c | 21.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 69c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…d794backed No | 69c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked No | 69c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…f39dbacked No | 75c | 13.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-05?this page
- Will Auckland FC win on 2026-01-05?No won
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.